I suppose I will fill in for Locke this week with a scientific topic. Something Locke said spurred me to think about this. He mentioned he would love to jump on a friendly alien ship that landed on Earth.
I saw a Fermi Problem in this statement.
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The question that intrigued me in Locke's statement was this:
"What is the probability that a friendly alien spaceship lands on Earth in my lifetime?"
The answer cannot be accurate, but using the Fermi approach one can at least approach it. The key is to focus on the process, not the solution of the problem. Funny, that is the same thing they kept telling me in an MBA class I took last Fall, but they didn't call it "Fermi approach".
Here are a couple of variables that can lead to an approximate answer:
What is the size of the universe?
How old is the universe?
What is the number of stars in the universe?
How many of them have planets capable of supporting life?
How many of them are inhabited by an advanced civilization?
What fraction of the speed of light travel would these civilizations be capable of travelling at? (assuming Einstein speed of light cap here)
How many space missions would each of these civilizations support?
etc...
The fact is, most of these questions are Fermi Problems in themselves, a lot more questions need to be asked and answered to get an answer to each one of them. I suggest a little game: if you have some time on your hands, try to use the Fermi approach to solve the underlined question. We all write up our results here and compare the answers. I will try to come up with something soon.
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