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Hurricane Rita
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Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:08 am ]
Post subject:  Hurricane Rita
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First Katrina took out everything to the east of me; Now Rita will be taking out everything to the west of me. The farther west it goes, the safer I will be. The east side of the storm is the worst, and that is where I will be. I wont be anywhere near the eye, but the radius is huge so I still may end up getting pounded by the bands as they rip away form the main storm. It is more likely my parents in central Louisiana will get more nasty weather than I.

Do you guys realize the gas situation is about to get bad here in the US? LA and TX is where a good percent of the gas is refined for the rest of the country. The drilling rigs off shore of TX and LA are a good part of our domestic oil is production. Katrina destroyed 40 rigs, and made spaghetti out of the underwater pipes that connect the rigs to the main land. Just as some of the Katrina off shore destruction was being repaired, Rita is ripping straight through the same area.
Author:  Arindel [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:25 am ]
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It's ugly no matter which you look at it. Hope it slows down before landign Saturday (thugh they expect it to be a minimum class 3 which is plenty awful) and stay safe.

I remember NC being pummeled by 2 hurricanes 1 week after another. The second one stalled and dumped water everywhere (about 1/3 the state was flooded out)
Author:  dbakke [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:33 am ]
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Yeah, I read predictions of $5 / gallon. Nothing new for our European friends, but...
Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:13 am ]
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This image shows Louisiana’s petroleum facilities and the ones affected my Katrina:
http://www.pannexresearch.com/katrina/LAOil.gif

This image shows the many off shore platforms (black icons) and land based refineries. Those platforms take a major beating. Katrina took out the ones on the right side of that map, Rita will take out the ones on the right side of the map.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/im ... _large.gif

Here is a map of the refining capacity that may be hit by Rita.
http://api-ec.api.org/filelibrary/REFIN ... -21-05.pdf

This map shows the refining capacity of the entire US. Notice how the areas being hit by these two storms make up a huge portion of our refining capacity. Then consider the fact that the majority of foreign oil enters the US via the ports that being hit by these storms.
http://members.cox.net/brian.thibodeaux ... enters.pdf
Author:  Talon1977 [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:51 am ]
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This sucks really really bad. I feel terrible for the folks in the gulf coast.
Author:  Cetera [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:58 am ]
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Yeah, this is pretty much going to suck, and it is almost certainly going to be the big push that forces energy policy change here in the States.

Honestly, what might be best for everyone is if the damn thing takes a sharp right-handed turn and go north, back into New Orleans. Everyone's already gone, and the damage has already been done. Flood it again, let the storm beat on there for a while, and prevent new damage all over the place. The entire Gulf coast is going to be FUBARed for a while, I think.
Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
Honestly, what might be best for everyone is if the damn thing takes a sharp right-handed turn and go north, back into New Orleans. Everyone's already gone, and the damage has already been done. Flood it again, let the storm beat on there for a while, and prevent new damage all over the place. The entire Gulf coast is going to be FUBARed for a while, I think.



I thought the same thing last night. The stuff to my east is destroyed already. Can’t get much more damaged than it is now, and the people are still mostly evacuated. Better to take another hit than have a whole new region leveled... But that is highly unlikely, it will hit between the greater Houston region and Lake Charles.




This page is full of info. http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspo ... 5&storm=18
Author:  iJasonT [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:46 pm ]
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I found this HERE and thought it was interesting.
Quote:
Will Rita calm down before hitting the coast?

Once a storm has worked itself up to Category 5 its strength is controlled by tiny changes in the sea temperature below. As Rita progresses towards the coast it will pass over small fluctuations from warm and cold eddies on the surface, and these will determine whether the wind speeds increase or decrease.
The hurricane also has its own set of complex internal dynamics. As it gets stronger, the eye becomes smaller and smaller until it can collapse in on itself. Then a much wider eye will develop and wind strength will drop significantly, before it begins to grow again. The wind speed on hitting land depends very much on its stage in the cycle of weakness and intensity, which is a matter of chance.
Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:16 pm ]
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Yeah it is hard for a cat 5 to keep its strength.

Because a hurricane is a low pressure heat engine, it gets stronger in warm waters, and weaker in cool waters. The gulf waters can be as hot as 85-90 degrees. That is why these storms can strengthen several fold when they skip beyond the Florida keys and enter the gulf.

For some reason beyond my understanding, the waters closer to land are cooler than the waters in the center of the gulf. I would think the deeper areas would have the cooler waters, and the shallow waters would be hotter, but that is not the case. The cooler waters and shallower depths start to weaken the storm just before it strikes land.
Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:23 pm ]
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Holy crap, they keep moving its path more and more east. :shock:
Author:  Cetera [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:15 pm ]
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Do you have an updated track, Cyrus? I can't find a good one.
Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:37 pm ]
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Newest one will be out within the hour.
Author:  Cetera [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:46 pm ]
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How often do they update? I keep checking on the NOAA site, and they have the same one from 10am Central time.
Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:22 pm ]
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Ok, at 4pm central they will post the newest data. The meeting of the experts was at 3pm, and their predictions will be a 4pm.

Untill then I had been looking at:
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... etype=move

For this one check the county, road, and Trop Fcest boxes. Notice how the last frame has the eye a good bit off from their porjected path icon in near that area. When they revise it will be farther east.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=1
Author:  Cetera [ Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:12 pm ]
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Here's a pic of some of the levee repairs in New Orleans on 17th St.

Image


If they get much rain and storm surge, that whole thing is going to go again. That's crazy. Notice the guy in front of the crane. It looks like the tracks are about waist high.

If New Orleans does flood again, they really need to seriously consider not rebuilding it at all for years, and maybe just divert the river to silt the whole place in.
Author:  X2-PB [ Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:15 am ]
Post subject: 
dbakke wrote:
Yeah, I read predictions of $5 / gallon. Nothing new for our European friends, but...
Yeah, our North Sea resources have started disappearing now so we're relying more and more on imports. Interesting though, the major suppliers, at the pumps, have actually started a price war so the prices are dropping again.
Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:51 am ]
Post subject: 
30 foot waterfall pours into New Orleans. Levi is breached again in the 9th ward.
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Meanwhile where I live, much more wind than normal, moderate gusts, it is trash day and garbage cans are toppling over. They skies are grey and ugly, so far rain is off and on, more of a nuance than anything else. Tornado warnings just went up all around here so I guess we are about to be hit by a stray band.

If the storm hits between the LA TX border, that would be a good thing. The areas between Lake Charles LA and Bomonte TX is largely unpopulated. That is the Sabine National Wildlife refuge and it extends a good ways up our border.

The real trouble will be the area to the east of the border… like Lake Charles. The surge can back up into the canals all over that area, causing flooding not necessarily form the cost side, but from the canal side. Trees in this area don’t see a freeze, nor do they see a hurricane very often. They are mostly tall pine trees and their limbs are long. Those trees will fall and break causing lots of damage to homes and the electrical grid.
Author:  Cyrus Rex [ Sun Sep 25, 2005 5:38 pm ]
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I feel like I have been beat up. I am so fatigued both mentally and physically. I guess I am sick of seeing everything around me destroyed.

Thursday night Danyale’s Parents flew in from California to sell their their Louisiana house and buy a different one. She does not get to see them very much, so she wanted to drive to Alexandria to visit them. I tried to talk her into waiting until Saturday morning, but she did not want to hear me. Friday evening we drove through the north eastern quadrant of the hurricane as it was in the gulf still heading west. Somehow we survived, most of the western drive we were between bands. However when we turned north the wind was very bad. We made it to her parents house to find them out of electricity. Factor in the fact that they just flew in the day before, and had no supplies to ride out the storm… needless to say I was pissed even though I didn’t let it show.

Meanwhile my parents were hosting two family’s of relatives who ended up loosing their homes in Lake Charles. My parent’s house was like a fortress full of food , provisions and electricity so it was nice. However my Aunt and Uncle as well as my Cousin, her Husband, and children were worried about their homes. My cousins house was flattened and the status of my Aunts house is unknown. Their friends in the area could not get close enough to find out its condition. So needless to say my parents house was a heap of anxiety and depression.

Anyway despite us driving through the storm, and then setting up residence in the path of the storm, we survived, and Danyale got to see her parents.

As we drove back home today I could not help be feel depressed as I watched the people around me. Convoys of trucks and trailers headed south to their flooded and flattened homes. Danyale and I waited in line for an hour at Burger King, and all the people around me were on their way home. They looked like they had gotten no sleep, and they looked like they had lost everything except what they packed in their truck. These people had planned ahead, and packed all kinds of equipment they would need to live until their town was back in order. They had boats and four-wheeler to navigate the impassable roads. They had campers and travel trailers so they could set up shelter as close to their old home as possible.

Despite being more prepared than the crowd who fled New Orleans, all these people looked bad. I could not believe they looked so bad even before they reach their destination, but I guess they knew what they were going home to.

I am just so sick of seeing all this destruction around me. Even though we have another month of hurricane season left, I hope we don’t have to deal with another one. I cant take much more of this.
Author:  Angelus [ Sun Sep 25, 2005 7:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
Sorry to hear that Cy. Not much to say except that as always, all our hearts and prayers are with everyone down in the South.
Author:  TheMole [ Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:43 am ]
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I'm so sorry Cyrus... I can't even begin to imagine what it's like in Lousiana right now. I've heard a couple of stories very similar to yours. Multiple families living in the same home, people not knowing whether or not they have a home, a job, etc...

When I was in Jamaica I met a few couples from New Orleans who were there to get away from it all for a little while. Well, needless to say, they were the lucky ones, since they could afford a week at a resort, but they still had sad stories about friends and family. I asked him about insurance, b/c I've really been wondering how that all works out. He said that he was fine b/c he had flood insurance, and that flood insurance is mandatory in some areas and not in others, but it's highly recommended in all areas. He said that those that chose not to have flood insurance are the ones in real trouble.

Here in Atlanta I have heard of quite a few people relocating here. They have lowered the class size restrictions in schools to make room for those who relocated. I hear ads on the radio for Hurricane Katrina job fairs. Several local businesses and radio stations are "adopting" families. It's nice to see everyone doing their part to chip in, and horribly depressing at the same time.

The wife and I are having a yard sale this weekend, and donating a lot of the proceeds to Hurricane relief. We need the money to pay off our pile of wedding debt, but there are so many others right now who really need it.
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